The
Shrinking Gains from Trade:
Doha Projections Project
The most widely cited projections of the economic and welfare gains of different liberalization scenarios, from the World Bank, are deeply flawed and subject to calculated misinterpretation to promote aspects of the liberalization agenda. GDAE has analyzed the methodological flaws in the modeling and evaluated other widely cited trade models. The goal is to demystify some of the most commonly referenced sources in order to give policy-makers a more accurate picture of the potential gains from trade liberalization, as well as the costs. GDAE will continue to update its report on the Doha projections as new estimates are released, while providing policy analysis for trade negotiators.
Key publications:
"Back to the Drawing Board: No Basis for Concluding the Doha Round of Negotiations" by Kevin P. Gallagher and Timothy A. Wise, RIS Policy Brief #36, April 2008.
"No Fast Track to Global Poverty Reduction," by Timothy A. Wise and Kevin P. Gallagher, GDAE Policy Brief 07-02, April 2007.
"Doha
Round and Developing Countries: Will the Doha deal
do more harm than good?" RIS Policy
Brief #22, by Timothy A. Wise and Kevin P.
Gallagher, April 2006.
"Steamrolled in trade talks," By Kevin P. Gallagher, Newsday, August 20, 2006.
"Doha's
Hidden Price Tag" By Kevin P. Gallagher, Bridges Trade Monthly, March-April, 2006.
"The
Doha Round's Development Impacts: Shrinking Gains
and Real Costs," RIS Policy Brief
#19, by Timothy A. Wise and Kevin P. Gallagher,
November 2005.
"The
Hong Kong Ministerial: What’s at Stake for
the Poor?" By Timothy A. Wise
and Kevin P. Gallagher, Bridges Trade Monthly, December 2005. (Also available in Spanish.)
"The
Shrinking Gains from Trade: A Critical Assessment
of Doha Round Projections," by
Frank Ackerman, GDAE Working Paper No. 05-01, October 2005.
"The
WTO's Development Crumbs," By
Timothy A. Wise, Foreign Policy in Focus,
January 23, 2006
GDAE
Research Director Frank Ackerman debates trade modelling
with Will Martin, the World Bank's lead economist
in their Trade and Development Research Group. June, 2006
"Collapse of the Doha Round of the WTO." by Timothy A. Wise, Dollars & Sense Magazine "Economy in Numbers" series, Sept-Oct 2006. (Not available online.)
For more information see GDAE's WTO Hong Kong
web page with press
coverage
See all of the Globalization and Sustainable Development
Program's publications: http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/policy_research/globalization.html
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