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The Shrinking Gains from Trade:
Doha Projections Project

The most widely cited projections of the economic and welfare gains of different liberalization scenarios, from the World Bank, are deeply flawed and subject to calculated misinterpretation to promote aspects of the liberalization agenda.  GDAE has analyzed the methodological flaws in
the modeling and evaluated other widely cited trade models.  The goal
is to demystify some of the most commonly referenced sources in order
to give policy-makers a more accurate picture of the potential gains from trade liberalization, as well as the costs. GDAE will continue to update its report on the Doha projections as new estimates are released, while providing policy analysis for trade negotiators.

Timothy A Wise interviewed by the Real News Network on the collapse of the Doha negotiations.

US Demands May Kill WTO Agreement: GDAE's Timothy A Wise gave an interview to The Real News Network on the Doha trade talks, and how US demands on developing countries are bringing the negotiations to a standstill. Read his recent Triple Crisis Blog post, Doha Goes on Life Support. Read more on GDAE's work on the WTO and Global Trade.

Key publications:

"Doha Goes on Life Support," by Timothy Wise, GDAE Globalization Commentary, May 2011 (Also available in Spanish).
Is Development Back in the Doha Round?” by Kevin P. Gallagher and Timothy A. Wise, South Centre Policy Brief #18, November 2009.
"Are There Large New Gains from Trade?" by Kevin P. Gallagher and Timothy A. Wise, Bridges Trade Monthly,  February 2010 (also published
in Spanish "¿Existen nuevas ganancias de la Ronda Doha?" by Puentes Bimestral, Vol. 10, No. 6, December 2009).
"The Shrinking Gains from Global Trade Liberalization in Computable General Equilibrium Models," by Frank Ackerman and Kevin P. Gallagher, International Journal of Political Economy, vol. 37, no. 1, Spring 2008. (NOTICE: Author Posting. (c) M. E. Sharpe, Inc., 2008. This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial
or systematic reproduction, re-distribution, re-selling, loan or sub-licensing, systematic supply or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden.)

"Back to the Drawing Board: No Basis for Concluding the Doha Round
of Negotiations"
by Kevin P. Gallagher and Timothy A. Wise, RIS Policy Brief #36, April 2008.
"No Fast Track to Global Poverty Reduction," by Timothy A. Wise and Kevin P. Gallagher, GDAE Policy Brief 07-02, April 2007.
"Doha Round and Developing Countries: Will the Doha deal do more harm than good?" RIS Policy Brief #22, by Timothy A. Wise and Kevin P. Gallagher, April 2006.
"Steamrolled in trade talks," By Kevin P. Gallagher, Newsday, August 20, 2006.
"Doha's Hidden Price Tag" By Kevin P. Gallagher, Bridges Trade Monthly, March-April, 2006.
"The Doha Round's Development Impacts: Shrinking Gains and Real Costs," RIS Policy Brief #19, by Timothy A. Wise and Kevin P. Gallagher, November 2005.
"The Hong Kong Ministerial: What’s at Stake for the Poor?" By Timothy A. Wise and Kevin P. Gallagher, Bridges Trade Monthly, December 2005. (Also available in Spanish.)
"The Shrinking Gains from Trade: A Critical Assessment of Doha Round Projections," by Frank Ackerman, GDAE Working Paper No. 05-01, October 2005.
"The WTO's Development Crumbs," By Timothy A. Wise, Foreign Policy in Focus, January 23, 2006
GDAE Research Director Frank Ackerman debates trade modelling with Will Martin, the World Bank's lead economist in their Trade and Development Research Group. June, 2006
"Collapse of the Doha Round of the WTO." by Timothy A. Wise, Dollars & Sense Magazine "Economy in Numbers" series, Sept-Oct 2006. (Not available online.)

For more information see GDAE's WTO Hong Kong web page with press coverage

See all of the Globalization and Sustainable Development Program's publications:

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