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The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership:
European Disintegration, Unemployment and Instability
Jeronim Capaldo
GDAE Working Paper 14-03
October 2014
Download the Working Paper in:
English, French, German, Italian, Spanish
Download the Executive Summary in
, Croatian, Czech, French,
German, Hungarian, Italian, Lithuanian, Polish, Portuguese,
Slovak, Spanish, Ukrainian

According to its proponents, the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership will stimulate growth in Europe and in the US. Projections endorsed by the European Commission point to positive, although negligible, gains in terms of GDP and personal incomes. In a paradox, these projections also show that any gains in Trans-Atlantic trade would happen at the expense of intra-EU trade reversing the process of European economic integration.

Furthermore, recent literature has pointed out several problems in the most influential assessment of the TTIP’s effects. Projections by different institutions have been shown to rely on the same Computable General Equilibrium model that has proven inadequate as a tool for trade policy analysis.

In this paper we assess the effects of TTIP using the United Nations Global Policy Model, which incorporates more sensible assumptions on macroeconomic adjustment, employment dynamics, and global trade. We project that TTIP will lead to a contraction of GDP, personal incomes and employment. We also project an increase in financial instability and a continuing downward trend in the labor share of GDP.

Evaluated with the United Nations model, TTIP appears to favor economic dis-integration, rather than integration, in Europe. At a minimum, this shows that official studies do not offer a solid basis for an informed decision on TTIP.

About the U.N. Global Policy Model:
Documentation and papers about the UN Global Policy Model are available on UNCTAD's website. [Note a log-in pop-up may appear; you can dismiss this by clicking "Cancel".]

Related Policy Briefs, Articles, Reprints:
Overcooked Free-Trade Dogmas in the debate over TTIP, Jeronim Capaldo, May 2, 2015 [Available in German]
TTIP: European Disintegration, Unemployment and Instability, Jeronim Capaldo, Queries, Spring 2015
For recovery, Europe needs to support labour not trade, Jeronim Capaldo, Government Gazette, March 18, 2015
Disoccupazione, diseguaglianza e instabilità. L'impatto del TTIP, Jeronim Capaldo, Italianieuropei, January 12, 2015
TTIP: European Disintegration, Unemployment and Instability, Jeronim Capaldo for the Foundation for European Progressive Studies, Economic Policy Viewpoint N.10. December 18, 2014
TTIP may lead to EU disintegration, unemployment, instability, Jeronim Capaldo, Reprinted in Third World Economics, November 2014

Conferences, Presentations & Interviews:

Jeronim CapaldoTransatlantic Agreement
Jeronim Capaldo was interviewed by the Slovenian news organization RTV Slovenia on October 12, 2015. The video is in Slovenian, begin at minute 0:16 to watch Capaldo in English.

Jeronim CapaldoThe big debate on the big free trade agreement between the EU and the US Jeronim Capaldo participated in a sold-out debate hosted by the Transnational Institute on April 17, 2015 in Amsterdam. The video of the debate is mostly in Dutch, begin at 28:26 to watch Capaldo in English.
Image: Copyright Frank de Ruiter

On March 11, Capaldo took part in a round table on TTIP hosted by Lilianne Ploumen, the Dutch Minister of Trade and Development. It took place at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in The Hague. 

Jeronim CapaldoTTIP not necessarily contributing to sustainable and reliable growth
Jeronim Capaldo was interviewed by RTL News, the largest commercial television channel in The Netherlands, on March 11, 2014. He answered questions about the implications of the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, and his recent work with the EU and Dutch governments.

Jeronim CapaldoTTIP, Trade and regulation, Benefits and Costs
Jeronim Capaldo spoke at a European Parliament workshop and press conference on March 5, 2015. Capaldo presented the findings from working paper to the Members of Parliament.

Jeronim Capaldo presented at a conference on Mega Trading Blocs: Implications for Developing Countries. The conference was held in New Delhi on December 15 and 16 2014, and co-hosted by Commonwealth Secretariat, UNCTAD, and Centre for WTO Studies at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT).

Jeronim CapaldoJeronim capaldo participated in an UNCTAD Conference in Geneva, Switzerland December 8-9, 2014 on Multi-year Expert Meeting on Enhancing the Enabling Economic Environment at All Levels in Support of Inclusive and Sustainable Development. See the slides from Capaldo's presentation.

Capaldo on Russia TodayBy favoring trade, there will be harm to internal economics
Jeronim Capaldo was interviewed on November 18, 2014 by Russia Today on the implications of the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, and his recent research on the treaty.

Press Coverage:
In English
TTIP: Job Creation and Social Rights – Call for Opinions, Announcement of event held as part of the Festival of Diplomacy, October 28, 2015
European Trade Deal Flips Script on Labor Issues, Chris Opfer, Bloomberg BNA, October 21, 2015
Promotion and protection of human rights: human rights questions, including alternative approaches for improving the effective enjoyment of human rights and fundamental freedoms, Alfred Maurice de Zayas Independent Expert on the Promotion of a Democratic and Equitable International Order, August 5, 2015
What is TTIP and why should we be angry about it?, Stuart Jeffries, The Guardian, August 3, 2015
Promotion and protection of all human rights, civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights, including the right to development, Alfred Maurice de Zayas Independent Expert on the Promotion of a Democratic and Equitable International Order, July 14, 2015
EU Needs Protectionism in TTIP Trade Talks With US, Daria Chernyshova, Sputnik News, July 3, 2015
Trade deal predicted to be blow to economies, Tim Padmore, The Yorkshire Post, June 23, 2015
The macroeconomic angle on the trade debate, Jeronim Capaldo, Letter to Financial Times, May 15, 2015
The embattled future of global trade policy, Martin Wolf, Financial Times, May 12, 2015
The War of Trade Models, Dani Rodrik, May 4, 2015
TTIP and the politics of economic modeling, Ewald Engelan, April 26, 2015
Reaction of Robert Went and Koen Berden to The Volkskrant on TTIP,, April 18, 2015
‘Modest jobs gain likely’ from EU-US deal, Peter O'Dwyer, Irish Examiner, April 4, 2015
Saving Obama from a Bad Trade Deal, Kevin P. Gallagher, The American Prospect, March 4, 2015
More flaws uncovered in Commission’s TTIP assessment methodologies, GUE/NGL News, March 3, 2015
World News Today, BBC World UK Edition, February 16, 2015 [Video]
Uncertainty over the economic benefits of the TTIP, Emmanuel Maurel, Question from European Parliament Member to the Directorate-General for Trade (DG Trade) of the European Commission, December 16, 2014; Response: Answer given by Ms Malmström on behalf of the Commission, February 4, 2015
Controversy over new US-Europe trade deal grows, BBC World Business Report, January 28, 2015 [Video]
MPs debate TTIP: Politics Live blog, The Guardian Politics Blog, January 15, 2015
Put aside ideology when it comes to TTIP, Bruno Macaes, euobserver, January 7, 2015
T-TIP trade agreement between the EU and the US, Jeronim Capaldo on Raidió Teilifís Éireann, Ireland's National Public Service Broadcaste, January 4, 2015 [Radio Interview]
Economists Duke It Out Over TTIP And How To Measure Impacts Of Trade, Inside U.S. Trade's World Trade Online, December 26, 2014
Disintegration, Unemployment and Instability Face Europe if Brussels Signs Up To TTIP, French News Online, December 7, 2014
Over 1mn Europeans sign petition against EU-US trade deal, Press TV, December 4, 2014
Resources, Bridges,Volume 18 - Number 39, November 20, 2014
TTIP may lead to EU disintegration, unemployment, instability - Part II, Jeronim Capaldo, Reprinted in SUNS #7919, November 19, 2014
TTIP may lead to EU dis-integration, unemployment, instability - Part 1, Jeronim Capaldo, Reprinted in SUNS #7918, November 18, 2014
Letters: Transatlantic trade deal is an assault on democracy, Polly Jones, Letter to The Independent, November 18, 2014
‘Who’s government working for?’ Cameron backing TTIP at G20 slammed by campaigners, audio of Interview with Russia Today, November 17, 2014
Don’t be surprised by opposition to TTIP, Nick Dearden, Letter to the Editor of the Financial Times, November 12, 2014
New research study: TTIP will have adverse effects on GDP, exports and jobs, Jørgen Steen Nielsen,, November 11, 2014 (Original article in Danish)
TTIP Not So Great, Politico Morning Trade, November 10, 2014
TTIP Update XLII, Glyn Moody,, November 10, 2014 (Reprinted by
TTIP Trade Pact ‘Will Cost Europe 600,000 Jobs', by Peter Lazenby, The Morning Star, November 8, 2014
For lower wages, higher inequality and more austerity – vote TTIP, Nick Dearden, World Development Movement, 7 November 2014

In Danish, Dutch, French, Hungarian, Italian, German, Polish, Romanian, Slovenian, Spanish

Intrevista a Jeronim Capaldo, Manlio Masucci, Conquiste de Lavoro, November 19, 2015
Sporazum za osiromašenje delavcev, Marjan Horvat, Mladina, October 9, 2015
Europa i USA prawie bez ?adnych granic Czytaj wi?cej na, Jerzy Jakubowski, INTERIA, July 19, 2015
Otro fantasma acecha a Europa, Elson Concepción Pérez, Granma, July 16, 2015
Quels sont les enjeux de l'accord de libre-échange?, Vincent Georis, L'Echo, July 11, 2015
¿Qué es el TTIP? De la democracia al gobierno de las transnacionales, Arturo Landeros, Rebelión, July 10, 2015
Debate y votación del informe de la Comisión de Comercio Internacional sobre el TTIP, Lola Sánchez, July 7, 2015 [Video]
El TTIP, un traje a medida de las multinacionales, Lola Sánchez and Florent Marcellesi, Huffington Post EU, June 9, 2015
Europa i USA prawie bez ?adnych granic, Jerzy Jakubowski, onet, June 6, 2015
8 pyta? w sprawie TTIP. Kandydaci na prezydenta RP o umowie pomi?dzy UE a USA, Lidia Ra?, Gazeta Prawna, May 5, 2015
Les patrons des multinationales prennent insidieusement le pouvoir, sans aucune légitimité et sans devoir rendre de comptes à personne, Thierry Denoel, Le Vif, May 5, 2015
WAAROVER GAAT HET GROTE #TTIPDEBAT?, Mitchell van de Klundert, Follow the Money, April 17, 2015
Evitemos a mercantilización da vida, Manuel Mera, La Region de Orense, April 14, 2015
Europa zal alleen maar verliezen met TTIP, concludeerde de In- ternationale Arbeidsorganisatie (ILO), Front page of NRC Handelsblad, April 2, 2015
Hoeveel globalisering verdraagt de mens?, Hella Hueck and Robert Went, RTL Nieuws, March 22, 2015
TTIP gaat juist banen kosten in EU, Marcel Bovy, January 14, 2015
Kés az unió torkán, Haraszti Gyula, Magyar Nemzet, February 12, 2015
Közgazdasági tanulmány igazolja a transzatlanti szerz?dés kártékonyságát, Transform!, February 5, 2015
Mehr Realismus und Seriosität in die TTIP-Debatte bringen, Klaus Ernst, DIE LINKE. im Bundestag, February 2, 2015
Handelsakkoord EU-VS: goed voor big business, slecht voor de samenleving, Sacha Dierckx,, January 19, 2015
TTIP zorgt voor banenverlies, Caroline De Gruyter, NRC Handelsblad, January 12, 2015
Folgen von TTIP für die EU: Mehr Arbeitslosigkeit, sinkende Einkommen, schrumpfende Exporte, Florian Rötze, Heise Zeitschriften Verlag, November 24, 2014
Handelsverdrag TTIP: slechte deal voor Europa, Hella Hueck, RTL Nieuws, November 19, 2014
Freihandelsabkommen TTIP – Was handeln wir uns da ein?, Maike Brzoska, Nord-Süd Netz, November 17, 2014
Commenti TTIP M5S, Mirko Busto,, November 17, 2014
Va Conduce TTIP La Pierderia a 600.000 de Locuri De Munca in Europa? Romania nu este pregatita pentru impactul teribil al TTIP asupra economiei, Calin Recha, Yahoo! News Romania, November 17, 2014
TTIP und Lohn-Dumping: USA wollen Deutschland Märkte in Europa abjagen, Interview with Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten, November 14, 2014
Unabhängige Studie: TTIP vernichtet in Europa 583.000 Arbeitsplätze, Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten, November 14, 2014
Studie: EU/US-Abkommen vernichtet 583.000 Jobs, Oliver Grimm, Die Presse, November 14, 2014
TTIP in panne. "Paure irrazionali", per ilFT. E se il trattato riducesse tutele, lavoro e redditi a favore delle multinazionali, come dice anche Stiglitz?, Mariagrazia Bruzzone, La Stampa, November 14, 2014
US-Studie: TTIP kostet in Europa 600.000 Arbeitsplätze, Salzburger Nachrichten, November 13, 2014
Risikofaktor TTIP Eine Neubewertung, Axel Weipert, das, November 13, 2014
US-Studie: TTIP kostet Europa 600.000 Job, Der, November 13, 2104
Attac: TTIP kostet Europa 600.000 Arbeitsplätze, Der Kurier, November 13, 2104
Feihandelsabkommen TTIP kostet bis zu 600.000 Jobs in Europa,, November 13, 2104
Studie: TTIP kostet Europa 600.000 Arbeitsplätze, Pro-Ge, November 13, 2104
TTIP kostet Europa laut US-Studie 600.000 Jobs, Osttirol, November 13, 2104
Finanztransaktionssteuer spaltet Europa - Details weiter offen, Thomas Strünkelnberg and Sebastian Kunigkeit, EU-Infothek, November 13, 2104
Freihandelsabkommen TTIP kostet bis zu 600.000 Jobs in Europa, Austria Online, November 13, 2104
TTIP kostet Europa laut US-Studie 600.000 Jobs, Neue Kronen Zeitung Online, November 13, 2104
US-Studie: TTIP kostet Europa 600.000 Arbeitsplätze, Tiroler Tageszeitung, November 13, 2104
Freihandelsabkommen TTIP kostet jeden EU-Bürger bis zu 5000 Euro, Wirtschafts Blatt, November 13, 2104
TTIP: Ehrliche Debatte über Gewinner und Verlierer ist überfällig, Press Release from Grüene Bundestag, November 12, 2014
Modelvalg handler om tiltro til markedet, Jørgen Steen Nielsen,, November 11, 2014
Jeronim Capaldo a RR: TTIP = Disintegrazione europea, disoccupazione e instabilit, Giorgio Pagano, Esperanto Radikala Asocio, November 8, 2014
Ttip, così cambiano i risultati, Jeronim Capaldo, Sbilanciamoci, November 4, 2014
Warum Washington so viele TTIP-Befürworter hat, Süddeutche Zeitung, August 2014

Further Analysis:

Trading Down: Unemployment, Inequality and Other Risks of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, Jeronim Capaldo, Alex Izurieta, and Jomo Kwame Sundaram, GDAE Working Paper 16-01, January 2016

Trade Hallucination: Risks of Trade Facilitation and Suggestions for Implementation, Jeronim Capaldo, GDAE Working Paper 14-02, June 2014

Support to WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement is Insufficient or Misdirected, Jeronim Capaldo, GDAE Policy Brief, July 25, 2014

Will the WTO fast-track trade at the expense of food security?, Timothy A. Wise and Jeronim Capaldo, Al Jazeera, July 24, 2014

The Uncertain Gains from Trade Facilitation, Jeronim Capaldo, GDAE Policy Brief 13-02 December 2013

Read more on Modeling Policy Reform
Read more from GDAE’s Globalization and Sustainable Development Program

The Global Development and Environment Institute’s Globalization and Sustainable Development Program examines the economic, social and environmental impacts of economic integration in developing countries, with a particular emphasis on the WTO and NAFTA's lessons for trade and development policy. The goal of the program is to identify policies and international agreements that foster sustainable development.

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