Modeling Policy Reform
Understanding the effects of International Trade and Investment Agreements on Finance and Employment
This project builds on the research collaboration between GDAE and UNCTAD, the United Nations body specialized in international trade and finance. It aims at assessing the macroeconomic effects of international trade and investment agreements, such as the Trans-Atlantic trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP), with special attention to employment and income distribution.
Recent years have seen the proliferation of international trade and investment agreements, ranging from investment treaties between two countries (BITs) to large regional agreements involving dozens of countries (“Mega-Regional” Agreements). Their effects are multiple and occur through complex channels but assessments have focused on trade channel and overlooked financial linkages, partly because there is no consistent database of international financial flows and stocks. However, available data suggest that the financial channel may be dominant in many economies and that its impact on employment and income distribution may be strong. The project will use the United Nations Global Policy Model (GPM) to analyze and estimate these effects. The GPM's documentation is freely available.
About the U.N. Global Policy Model:
Documentation of the model, which is housed at the U.N. Commission for Trade and Development, is available in the following UNCTAD paper:
"The UN Global Policy Model: Technical Description," by Francis Cripps and Alex Izurieta, May 2014.
CETA Without Blinders: How Cutting ‘Trade Costs and More’ Will Cause Unemployment, Inequality and Welfare Losses, Pierre Kohler and Servaas Storm, GDAE Working Paper 16-03, September 2016
Trading Down: Unemployment, Inequality and Other Risks of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, Jeronim Capaldo, Alex Izurieta, and Jomo Kwame Sundaram, GDAE Working Paper 16-01, January 2016
The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: European Disintegration, Unemployment and Instability, Jeronim Capaldo, GDAE Working Paper 14-03, October 2014
Support to WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement is Insufficient or Misdirected, Jeronim Capaldo, GDAE Policy Brief, July 25, 2014
Will the WTO fast-track trade at the expense of food security?, Timothy A. Wise and Jeronim Capaldo, Al Jazeera, July 24, 2014
Trade Hallucination: Risks of Trade Facilitation and Suggestions for Implementation, Jeronim Capaldo, GDAE Working Paper 14-01 June 2014
Trade facilitation has real costs and dubious gains, Jeronim Capaldo, Letter to the editor of the Financial Times, December 4, 2013
The Uncertain Gains from Trade Facilitation, Jeronim Capaldo, GDAE Policy Brief 13-02, December 2013
Fiscal Austerity and the Euro Crisis: Where Will Demand Come From?, Jeronim Capaldo, GDAE Policy Brief 13-01 November 21, 2013
Read more about Reforming Trade Policy
Read more from GDAE’s Globalization and Sustainable Development Program
The Global Development and Environment Institute’s Globalization and Sustainable Development Program examines the economic, social and environmental impacts of economic integration in developing countries, with a particular emphasis on the WTO and NAFTA's lessons for trade and development policy. The goal of the program is to identify policies and international agreements that foster sustainable development.